The Perfect Storm / BUSH

[Oxygon]

http://www.strike-the-root.com/52/blow/blow10.html

too harsh, predictions anyone?

[Jonathan]

I'd say that is too harsh, in fact it sounds like it was written by you (I'm not saying it was). I say both of you guys should take your prozac and go out for ice cream.
Also, I see it was written today. I think Bush's vacation is over, he was in Arizona today talking to old folks about health care costs or something.

[jim_mich]

Joe Blow speaks the truth, more or less. What Joe Blow doesn't realise or doesn't say is we have been in a recession for over a year now. The PPT (U.S. government's 'Plunge Protection Team') has been working overtime behind the scenes trying to keep the economy looking rosy. They fudge economic numbers released to the public. They control the 30 Dow Jones stocks to make the stock market look good. They control gold and silver prices to make paper currency look more valuable. Bush thought conquering Iraq would solve things. He lied to the American people and to the World, just so he and his friends could get their way. Things are starting to smell bad and will eventually hit the fan.

The Fed has called for a meeting with 14 financial institutions on Sept 15, 2005. It is highly unusual for the FED to meet with traders, so this is not to fix the date of the annual golf tournament or decide what to buy Greenspan as a retirement gift! The last time that any such meeting was instigated on such a scale was for the LTCM crisis... which just happened to be about averting a systemic failure due to a 1 trillion dollar derivative failure. We are now 7 years down the road and looking at a 100 trillion dollar market. Warren Buffett, about a year and a half ago described credit derivatives -- those obscure financial contracts -- as "financial weapons of mass destruction."

There's always trouble in the world, always posible doom and gloom. The wise person keeps his eyes open. If you're on an ocean beach and suddenly all the water rushes away from the beach, don't walk into the ocean wondering where all the water went. Run like hell away from the beach because a tsunami is about to hit.

[ken_behrendt]

Jim...

I find myself in essential agreement with your views.

I've noticed in the last 35 years, with the exception of a few "boom" years in the '90's, that the economy in the USA seems to be on a continuous slide downward. It now takes two incomes to purchase what one used to. Our industrial base is being continuously erroded by the never ending tide of cheap foreign goods. And the cost of fuel is starting to get ridiculous.

I think that if things keep going the way they have, then in another, maybe, 20 years, the USA could have the economic status of a second class nation. We'll have a small percentage of the population working on farms or involved with resource extraction and the remaining 90+% will live in congested urban areas and mostly dependent on government handouts to get by. That is, we'll have a small elite class in possession of most of the wealth counter balanced by a very large percentage of poor and desperate people whom the government will be try to keep pacified with "bread and circuses" so as to prevent a revolution that could really throw the nation into chaos.

The time to take action is now...but, don't ask me exactly what that action should be. If we have to begin cutting salaries and prices in order to compete with the emerging Asian and Indian industrial powers, then so be it. If we have to start conserving fuel and cutting our demand for it, then we might consider trading our SUV's in for ultra-light vehicles that can deliver up to 100 miles to the gallon...at least until we can get the much talked about hydrogen powered vehicle technology seriously underway.

Well, on one hand I am very pessimistic about the future of the USA (and the whole world for that matter!), yet, on the other hand, I am also somewhat optimistic about the future. I think human beings have a tremendous capacity to adjust to new situations and then go on to creatively improve them. All we need is sufficient motivation to get us going. Perhaps is the price of a gallon of gasoline hits $5 in the USA, then that will provide the necessary motivation...

ken

[Jonathan]

>working overtime behind the scenes trying to keep the economy looking rosy. They fudge economic numbers released to the public. They control the 30 Dow Jones stocks to make the stock market look good. They control gold and silver prices to make paper currency look more valuable. Bush thought conquering Iraq would solve things. He lied to the American people and to the World, just so he and his friends could get their way.<
And what must inevitably be asked: do you have proof of any of this?

[Trev]

He's spot on Oxy.

[Techstuf]

Lol....Jonathan, 'devil's advocate' you ain't. Your attempt is half hearted at best and you know it.


Jonathan, take the 'blue pill' and do the 'math'.



Peace,


TS

[Jonathan]

I'll believe it when I see the evidence. I don't know if Jim has the time or will to answer, so who among you will be the pharmacist?

[Techstuf]

Pharmacist?

Jonathan, I mean no personal disrespect when I assert metaphorically, that even an eye transplant may be an insufficient modality at this late juncture. But who am I to judge what may be made positive manifest in the wondrous, though foreboding reality shared by this generation?

Peace,


TS

[jim_mich]

Jonathan,

To give a proper answer and proof would require more time than I have available. Also each point I tried to make is controversial. Much is not black and white.

For instance, did Bush lie? He told us that Iraq had Weapon's of Mass Destruction. He used fear as a sales tactic to sell a war to the American people. Were there any WMD? No!

The stream of statistics released by the US government are so doctored up that they are almost useless. Unemployment statistics ignore those people that have been out of work so long that their benefits have run out. Real inflation is almost double what the government figures say. But you want proof! Open your eyes. Do some research.

Years ago the stock market would go down on bad news and up on good news. Today the stock market follows the Dow futures market. With enough money the futures can be pushed up and down. When bad news happens and the stock market is at risk, the PPT goes into action and buys future contracts to move the DOW futures up. As the futures rise the stock market follows. I see it happen all the time.

Traditionally gold and silver are assumed to be a barometer of the financial strength of paper currencies. The value of gold is considered to be more or less constant, so if the price of gold rises relative to a paper currency then it has been assumed that the paper currency has fallen in value. So someone gets the bright idea that if you keep the price of gold low it will make the paper currency look more valuable and strong. For a number of years now the US government has maintained what they refer to as "The Strong Dollar Policy". But they have never stated publicly just what that means. Maybe it is just a coincidence that the price of gold disconnected from the price of other real goods at the same time "The Strong Dollar Policy" phrase was first coined? The gold and silver futures markets are manipulated just like the Dow futures markets.

In the mid 1930's (during the Great Depression) my dad worked as a 'hired man' on a dairy farm. His wages were ONE (silver) DOLLAR a week plus a house to live in and food from the farm (usually referred to as 'room and board'). I would assume the value of the room and board at two dollars. So his pay was about 3 silver dollars a week. Today silver dollars sell for about $5. So he worked for about $15 dollars a week in today's money based on today's price of silver. Has the value of a man's labor changed so much over the years? Or is the price of silver being held artificially low? Silver should be 20 to 30 times higher than it is today. But if silver rises and gold doesn't then it looks suspect. So the silver price is suppressed. The problem is that keeping the precious metal prices low causes mining companies to loose money and go out of business, and less metal is mined. Silver is being used up by industry faster than it is being mined. Sometime in the near future silver MUST return to its true value, about 2 or 3 ounces for a weeks wages, or about $150 to $200 per ounce.

I've typed a lot more than I intended to here. Maybe I even got a little off topic. And I know I didn't show much hard evidence proof. But neither did Bush show any hard evidence proof of WMD and you seem to believe him.

[Jonathan]

Thanks Jim. You might say you are off topic, but I don't think Oxygon winces when someone has bad things to say about anything, he seems to thrive on such news. :)
>For instance, did Bush lie? He told us that Iraq had Weapon's of Mass Destruction. Were there any WMD? No!<
I agree, and that indicates he was at least wrong, and may have lied. But proof of a lie requires proof that he knew there were no WMD (I almost wrote WM2D there :D).
I am aware that gov't statistics don't make any sense, but I'm not sure they do that on purpose (I'm well aware of how scientists often don't do it right, on accident and on purpose). In an economics class I took, it was revealed that those who are unemployed but not looking for work (content moochers and early-retires), aren't counted. I suppose they do that so the gov't doesn't get worse numbers just because some bums lack initiative and others don't have to have work anymore. And during the last presidential election, stats cited by many Democrats about people loosing health benefits included anyone who didn't have health benefits for any nonzero amount of time during the fiscal year. In fact, I think I'll give you this one without further proof.
>Years ago the stock market would go down on bad news and up on good news.<
It still does. In fact, there are enough people who believe that astrology can predict the markets that their collective trading habits noticably influences the market, and thereby causes it to (slightly) follow astrological predictions. If the stock market were being fixed by a cabal then I don't think the tiny fluctuations of astrology-traders would've been observable in the study I heard about (sorry, no references).
>"The Strong Dollar Policy". But they have never stated publicly just what that means.<
I just did a search and I can't find anything concrete to go on, they're all opinion pieces. But I get the impression that that phrase is just hot air.
>Has the value of a man's labor changed so much over the years?<
Yes. It was the Depression, there was a vast surplus in the labor market, which drove the wages really low. And, the average productivity of workers has been steadly increasing from then 'til now, due substantially to increases in higher education rates and economies of scale.
>But neither did Bush show any hard evidence proof of WMD and you seem to believe him.<
Ah, I believed him. And not exactly him, I believed the intelligence that he pointed to. And so did John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, Jacques Chirac and many other offcials of the US, Britian, France, Germany, Russia, China, Spain, Italy, Australia, and Poland. (I do have quotes of those people I named if anyone wants them).

[amateur]

>Has the value of a man's labor changed so much over the years?<
Yes. It was the Depression, there was a vast surplus in the labor market, which drove the wages really low. And, the average productivity of workers has been steadly increasing from then 'til now, due substantially to increases in higher education rates and economies of scale.

I believe your point here conspires to make Jim's observation even worse....? (i.e., wage deflation is worse than Jim painted it to be, if it was already low in the depression.)

[jim_mich]

Jonathan,

You missed my point when I said >Has the value of a man's labor changed so much over the years?<

In place of a man's labor I could have used the price of a home ($5,000 vs. $200,000), the price of an automobile ($500 vs. $20,000), the price of bread ($0.05 vs. $2.00) all at a 40 to 1 ratio. Or look at copper, petroleum, or whatever.

Compared that to gold ($35 vs. $433) at a 12.37 to 1 ratio and silver ($1.32 vs. $6.85) at 5.19 to 1 a ratio increase over that same seventy years. Why have precious metals failed to rise with inflation? The disconnect happened after 1987 when Congress authorized what is commonly called the "Plunge Protection Team" or PPT to help maintain stock market stability.

Without the natural balance that gold gives to the market by telling the market what a paper dollar is really worth, the economy has developed in a direction that is bad. Deceit brings down individuals and it brings down countries.

[rlortie]

jim_mich,

I am in agreement with your above statement.

i also would like to point out that Gold and Silver prices vary not so much with inflation but with the prime interest rates set by Greenspan.

During the end of the Carter-Mondale era, smiling Jimmy had drove the prime up to over 20.50% No one could afford to finance a house and numerous home builders went broke as they were unable to sell there products. (I was one of them) This of course also broke many building suppliers who were left holding the bag. Gold pressed the $800.00 per troy ounce figure.

I live near a gold bearing area, belive me everyone from school teachers to earth moving contractors were out digging for gold. I staked claim to 40 acres and set up a small placer mining operation where I was able to survive for the following two years. When the interest rate fell it was no longer profitable.

Ralph

[Jonathan]

No amateur, he said his dad made 15$/w, and today minimum wage is 210$/w. His point was that the worth of a man's labor hasn't changed that much, so there must be stuff going on behind the scenes. But my point was that it has changed so much.
>price of a home ... automobile ... bread<
Homes and cars are bigger and better than they were. Price elasticity of demand of bread is tiny, people will buy it even if it is oddly expensive. And all three have been subject to inflation. As for gold and silver, I'm not sure.