Covid-19

[Fletcher]

I'll give an opinion about NZ's female Prime Ministers response Oystein.

The common perception internationally and nationally is that she was decisive and went to lockdown early because of clear and decisive thinking. That somehow she had superior intuition and intelligence when this pandemic was unfolding and much was still unknown. That she has better than good leadership qualities in a crisis and showed character etc.

What is not said is that the economy is in a coma. Lockdown here is quite severe, not even takeaways. When we come out of lockdown next week to a slightly lesser lockdown severity half of the nations cafe's, restaurants, and bakery's will not open again, with all the job losses associated. Australia didn't follow this total lockdown strategy and has similar Covid results to NZ per capita. But their economy is in far far far better shape.

My argument is that she was not decisive at all. She knee-jerk overreacted. And was not intelligent about her response. The opposite of the publicly put out story. But that story isn't good click bait.

It was clear from the start that we had to close our borders. She did do this but allowed returning NZ's to SELF isolate, if they said they had some plan, which they said they did. I for one don't trust human nature to strictly self isolate in every instance, which was proved right. Her strategy should have been to strictly quarantine on arrival ALL entrants in govt provided digs under watch for a minimum of 2 weeks. No exceptions. At the same time as implementing Quarantine, Test, Track and Trace procedures. IOW's lockdown those returning or who had the virus. Then boost testing stations and track and trace clusters etc.

We have an economy on life support spending billions and billions more to come. Which future generations will inherit. Because they are a Labour govt taxes will rise to pay for this "protection" and economic recovery stimulus effort.

Yet, just a fraction of those billions could have been spent on strict Quarantine and accommodation protocols, widespread testing availability, PPE equipment, Tracking and tracing of contacts etc if done intelligently at the start.

And our internal economy not be on its knees !

So was she decisive where it mattered ? Was she intelligent about what she did, by modeling the responses and settling on the least disruptive one ? Was she a superior leader somehow better than a man at assessing the risks ?

I say no, just the average incompetence of your usual politician in the light of day !

P.S. here is more woolly thinking. The labour govt here wants to eradicate the virus before lifting lockdowns 4 & 3 levels. Or until a vaccine becomes available. 4 weeks in and we are crippled. Where will we be in a year, and still no eradication because of the small percentage of asymptomatic carriers which would be picked up by blitzkrieg testing, tracking and tracing, if you had half a brain, while the economy carried on.

[Oystein]

I see, and we have the same discussion over here.. But I think we can afford it well though.. money in stocks is really just numbers..spend some when you need them..at least..

I didn't imply that it was the least or most intelligent, but a difference in priority.. between lives and economy maybe?

I follow Sweedens approach with great interrest, that are under heavy fire for keeping the country going.. My numbers agree with theirs, and that they will start to see some effects of heard imunity in May..

People die..the male leader say... its up to the people to take measures, the economy must run. Those who die must die anyway. Sooner or later.. because a vaccine is far away..

But they are under heavy fire..and agree that they have some problems. The health minister say everything is fine. The prime minister say tjey are under heavy load.. the elderly die..they wasn"t prepared enough.. So who matters most? your wallet or your parents lives..

I don"t rhink a woman leader would do what sweeden does..

I believe their math is about true..if so..tjey will be among the first to be fully running without measures.. Then we can count the lives.. then we can tell.. It"s still an experiment...

Best
ØR

[Fletcher]

I believe it a matter of priorities also Oystein.

A balance between life, liberty, and the economy. Protect the most vulnerable first.

What raises my dander is that eradication MAY be an outcome, but it should not be the focus, at the cost to everything else, as some people are saying.

Quarantine, test, track and trace. Control and contain. Go hard or go home, since we already started down this track. Or as Sweden and Brazil did, let it play its course and take what measures you can afford if you didn't go hard at the beginning like the USA also.

So who matters most? your wallet or your parents lives..

Is the choice really so emotively polarizing ? I don't think so. Just ask the poor and jobless unable to pay their mortgage or rent and lose their house or business.

FWIW NZ has about the same population as Denmark of about 5 million. But Denmark has 1/6th the land area. Yesterday we had 1409 cases, about 800 recovered from them and 11 deaths. Yesterday 8 new cases which has been trending down for the lest few days. And mid next week we will probably ease the lockdown to essential (supermarket and pharmacies) plus 'safe' businesses i.e. able to maintain social separation plus online buying of essential items. You will be able to swim, kayak and paddle board, surf, and drive a short distance to walk and run.

The upshot is that Sweden will have herd protection soon enough. We will not. If a vaccine comes along in a year the landscape will change to a level playing field. But until then untold damage is done. The Law of Unintended Consequences when your arguments are not logic based and unduly swayed by emotional or political arguments.

[ovyyus]

I follow Sweedens approach with great interrest... and that they will start to see some effects of heard imunity in May..

The upshot is that Sweden will have herd protection soon enough.

It seems that immunity after coronavirus infection is only expected to last a year or two. As with most bell curves, some will probably develop longer acquired immunity after infection, and some will develop none. Can the herd immunity strategy be effective with such a limited and varied immune response?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-covid-19

...most virologists believe that immunity against Covid-19 will last only a year or two...

Apologies in advance to daxwc for not sourcing this through an alt-right publication :P

[Fletcher]

I'd say it can work reasonably effectively for each country until a vaccine comes along and providing social distancing is slowing the transmission to allow the health system to cope. Then like other Corona viruses we deal with the annual mutations by annual vaccinations for the 'at risk'. Just like we do here with the annual flue jab for the elderly (free) and those that want to pay for it. Learn from each country before it gets to your turn.

By then a lot more genetic and susceptibility profiles will be known which might mitigate future treatment options and national roll out strategies etc.

What we have here is a gut-shot economy in the hands of a labour govt possibly with a welfare dependent nanny state beckoning (maybe over-reacting but maybe not). Where the top 8% of earners pay for the rest. Not my philosophical, ideological, or politically preferred outcome for the country that can hold its own and wipe its own nose if back in business.

[ME]

Our bodies can more-or-less respond to Influenza virus variations.
I'm not a virologist/immunologist, but I guess/hope that pattern-matching of our immune system gets easier for new variation once it found a pattern for a previous one.

With some effort this Covid-19 is already actively tracked by its slight mutations.
That may be nice to find the route it took around the World, but let's hope our immune system can keep up with those small mutations and upcoming Covid-21 genes are not shifted too much.
Otherwise "we", as a global species, have to wait until "herd-DNA" makes "us" stronger over a couple of generations.

I am not the news just a guy with a stick in your eye.

Daxwc, fetch whatever stick you want if that pleases you...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rifld_d ... .be&t=3080

[Oystein]

I just heard a researcher say: The traditional "cold" is related to, and is a kind of corona virus variation.. so close that some immune systems may be well enough prepared.. It was speculated that this is why so many don't get sick at all. (Thus not creating that much specific antibodies). Time and research will tell why so many seems almost unaffected by it..

So out of an example of 10.000 infected:
Typical: When you have 1000 diagnosed, another 4000 was sick but not sick enough to get a test, and another 5000 was infected but didn't get notable symptoms.. It could be because their immune system is indeed effective towards variations of the "cold" (prior corona-like colds)??

Out of those 10.000 infected and 1000 sick and tested, around 20-40-60 people dies. That is why they believe the 9000 without a diagnose will be the bottom of the iceberg - the herd immunity.. And that number is much larger than the average people know. And I even can start to see traces that governments and health authorities don't really like that number to get public.. because then the Covid-19 (numbers) will look a lot milder. Closer to the flu, and then their actions and money will look wasted and over-reactive.. But still, those (not so public) numbers is what Sweden is basing their herd immunity predictions on.. (I'm not saying I don't think the Covid-19 is more uncontrollable (spreading among "healthy") and aggressive than the flu..meaning that so many need ventilators, and that is a serious and deadly health risk by itself, not to mention separate areas and PPE etc.)

Funny: Donald Trump again attacked Sweden for their "herd" approach.. Look how bad it is over there...I could show you.. (we do so much better not going for "the herd" after all). It was so smart of me to shut things down..

Well. Sweden's deaths numbers are mainly identical to USA.. (per capita)

This is a good place to monitor the world:
https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona/verden/
(per capita in the right column)


Best
ØR

[agor95]

Hi Raj

How are you doing out there in Mauritius?

Regards

We have been informed 5 people have the virus in Mauritius.

I trust you have prepared for this happening.

At least you are in a more controllable state.

All the Best

[agor95]

This is a good place to monitor the world:
https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona/verden/
(per capita in the right column)


Best
ØR

I use these links

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Yes we are not being told all the numbers. We are being managed/governed.

For example UK NHS

Total Confirmed 108692
Total Deaths -14576
Total NHS Active -18978

Recovered 75138
or at home

The official recovered is 344

Regards

[Oystein]

I follow Sweedens approach with great interrest... and that they will start to see some effects of heard imunity in May..

The upshot is that Sweden will have herd protection soon

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-covid-19

...most virologists believe that immunity against Covid-19 will last only a year or two...

Apologies in advance to daxwc for not sourcing this through an alt-right publication :P

Time will tell.. that's also why some take the safe approach. There's a lot of questions.. why does so few get sick/symptoms? How long will their immunity last? Some say, the harder the symptoms, the longer the immunity.. Well, all the others don't need immunity then.. if all the ones that get really sick, get a long immunity.. And finally.. it may never be a vaccine for all corona mutations. (some work with a universal vaccine) or not even one for this one...

So the safe approach is the best choice if lives are more important than budget.. From now on.. Testing, quarantine, tracking, anybody testing and WHOs medicine blind-tests are the safest route.

Going for the herd.immunity is the cheapest and most unsafe..even of it may "win" in the end..

Best
ØR

[ME]

Hi Raj
How are you doing out there in Mauritius?
Regards

We have been informed 5 people have the virus in Mauritius.
I trust you have prepared for this happening.
At least you are in a more controllable state.

All the Best

Mauritius's numbers seem to be on the "right" side of the curve. In decline for over a week.
https://besafemoris.mu/stats/

[agor95]

That is such a great graph. UK government they are full and open with the numbers.

They will never create a graph like this for 75 years.

Thanks

[ME]

When I look at the available ecdc-data (Apr 18th 2020) then I see a trend that's following Italy and Spain.
And those numbers are growing less fast, the UK seems to be about 10 days behind.
I'm certainly no authority, but I think that at the end of May you should see the sun-rays piercing those thunder clouds.

As I track it regularly I can show you my own fabricated totally unofficial and smoothed out work-in-progress chart for you to see what I see.
For you I added the UK-line in nice pink.
You can also see how the world graph (black) is determined by the Chinese (red) and then how the US (blue) adding its part.

Horizontally the reported amount of deaths by Covid-19 (log scale).
Vertically I try to map a growth exponent where the next day there are X^Y new cases.

[agor95]

Thanks for the analysis.

There is the saying 'look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves'.

So doing analysis for countries by their place in the arch would be good.

That does mean the World, China & South Korea could be moved out of the analysis of counties is the turning point arch stage.

All the Best

[agor95]

It would be good to do a straw poll on Covid-19.

What I mean is

On the first week of February 2020 I had a covid-99 like infection in the UK.

Some one I know reported the same with no taste or smell in UK in November 2019.

So if you or a close contact had a covid-19 like infection before this then let us know.

The Country, year-month-week is the key details and only if it's before the date posted for your country.

Lets see what the first date is by country.

Cheers