The Buffett Indicator

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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

So basically in short: The business of gambling on losers.
Not entirely. Often a stock heats up and gets ahead of itself. People making the market
will short it down a bit. They structure buy to cover orders below their shorts. Short
positions are used to regulate the market.

If the stock is a loser, it's going to get shorted down so fast your head will spin. You won't
have the chance to bet on that. I have watched stocks getting shorted in the aftermarket
and then in the premarket getting shorted down even some more. When they want to
move a stock they move it. They put that price precisely where they want it. It's a fun game.

Tesla is through the roof. I forget the guy's name but he's the one that predicted the housing
crisis with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From what I understand he personally lost a billion
dollars shorting Tesla. Tesla is being manipulated like no one's business.

I think gold is heading up long-term, but I also think it's gotten a little ahead of itself. I
expect to see it bouncing off those lower bands. If Biden wins I expect gold to go through
the roof.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

I just bought calls on a very interesting company. Here is a list of their patents.
  • Expedite® E120
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E162
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E172
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E346
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E362
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E371
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E396
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E725
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964

    Expedite® E760
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,224,964


    Merlin Data Card Modems

    ProductPatent NumberMerlin CC760
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Merlin X950D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Merlin X720
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Merlin XU870
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Merlin XV620
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    7,024,223
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

     

    USB Modems

    ProductPatent NumberOvationâ„¢ MC551
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC547
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC545
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC998D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC996D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC935D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovationâ„¢ MC727
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737
    7,751,204
    8,018,734

    Ovationâ„¢ MC930D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737
    7,751,204
    8,018,734

    Ovationâ„¢ MC950D
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737
    7,751,204
    8,018,734

    Ovation™ MC990D 
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737

    Ovation™ MC760 
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,785,556
    6,799,030
    7,318,225
    7,574,737
    7,636,245
    7,751,204
    8,009,441
    8,018,734


    MiFiâ„¢

    ProductPatent NumberMiFiâ„¢ 2200
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737
    7,944,901
    7,944,901

    MiFiâ„¢ 2352
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737 

    MiFiâ„¢ 2372
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737
    7,944,901 

    MiFiâ„¢ 3352
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737
    7,944,901 

    MiFi™ 4082 
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737
    7,944,901
    7,984,496

    MiFi™ 4510 
    5,129,098
    5,337,345
    6,799,030
    6,829,481
    6,915,142
    7,224,964
    7,318,225
    7,319,715
    7,224,964
    7,574,737
    7,944,901
They almost have as many patents as Rag. It's a recent development according to
generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP) to include intellectual property with the
assets of a corporation. If you would really want to do your due diligence, you would review
all of these patents and try to place a value on them.

I didn't do that. What I did was a bit of meta-analysis. Several people on the internet, not the
least of these Motley Fool, say this company is the linchpin of 5G technology.

There is speculation that their next earnings announcement date is going to be November
4th, 2020. Part of their earnings is going to be earnings derived from Apple (AAPL) that's
giving Apple a 5G capability on their new phone.

Very smart people have said Inseego (insg) is going to exceed the returns of companies
like Netflix Amazon Etc. We'll see
........................¯\_(ツ)_/¯
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ the future is here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Advocate of God Almighty, maker of heaven and earth and redeemer of my soul.
Walter Clarkson
© 2023 Walter W. Clarkson, LLC
All rights reserved. Do not even quote me w/o my expressed written consent.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by Art »

Hi WaltzCee

I'm willing to bet 2:1 that you are or have been a seasoned poker player ! : )
Have had the solution to Bessler's Wheel approximately monthly for over 30 years ! But next month is "The One" !
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

Well Art, my older brother and his college buds used to slap me around without mercy.

I'm not sure where I got the info aapl was using insg technology but that's incorrect. Also
Motley Fool didn't recommend them. Opps, strike 2. Good thing I'm not a surgeon, there'd
be a lot of dead people out there. :)

I'm still comfortable with these calls in spite of insg hemoraging cash. Bad company, good
stock.
  • Institutional Ownership 48.84 %
If the smart money wants a return they need to move this puppy up. Also there's the 5G
story. Every one wants a piece of that disruptive technology.

It's a very small position. Something to keep me on my toes. My old broker was bought by
Charles Schwab and their site sucks.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by daxwc »

Looks like Inseego (insg) first came out in around NOV 1 2000 at 225 dollars by 2003 was at .73 cents. Wonder what that was about? It laggard away and started picking up 2 years ago. Maybe when I got time I will look into them.
What goes around, comes around.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

It was a restructuring, daxwc.
Novatel, renamed Inseego in 2016, recognized the potential of the newly emerging 5G NR
standard, and on June 8, 2017, replaced CEO and chair Sue Swenson with Dan Mondor as
CEO, and HC2/Harbinger’s Philip Falcone as chairman.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/comp ... 14989.html

I have to admit I was irrationally exuberant. I turned the calls loose and made enough to
almost buy a cup of coffee. If you're interested in a 5G play wait until the macd starts to
trend up.

As I was watching the market action I noticed they were pulling the price down as they were
moving the call prices up. Maybe putting on bear call spreads. Just a guess.

A pull quote from that link . . .
The bottom line is 5G is going to change the way you watch TV, surf the net,
and live your life.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

When XLNX finishes pulling back it might be a good 5G candidate.
I'm going to short it Monday.

Edit: I knew Monday is labor day. Make that Tuesday. I just placed the order.
Edit again: a friend mentioned to me NLOK. I took a look at it and decided to buy
some calls.

If anybody has some stock tips make a mention of them. I'll give you my humble analysis.
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Post by eccentrically1 »

The market sentiment seems to be turning lately.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

The broader market is yes. The DOW's trending down. Several indicators point toward
trend continuation. It seems today is retracing yesterday to some extent, indicates to me
some hedging, profit-taking.

When you look at the macd, the 12 Day SMA has penetrated the 26 day SMA. That seems to
confirm the downward trend. There are some hot spots though.

I cancelled both my orders before the market opened yesterday. I'm putting my eye back on
gold. It didn't bounce off the lower bands where I thought it was supposed to, but what I've discovered over
time is that some sideways action can equal a down trend. I learned that the first time I
shorted a stock, that was red hat. I'll never forget that afternoon. I expected it to be down
a dollar and then come back up. It went down $0.50 and then traded sideways, then
popped back up 3 * before I bought and covered. I broke even.

I have my eye on it. Differing opinions are welcome.
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Post by eccentrically1 »

I don't short the market, I don't have that much risk tolerance.
I think the market is going to bounce around trying to get back over those ATHs.
I don't think it will, I think it's going to test support around spx 3200-3275 in the next couple weeks.
Then, depending on the vaccine news, and election news, it will break that support or it will hold.
We'll see, but I was one of those that took profits at those highs last week, so I'm ready.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

When you're looking at an intraday chart, you can tell when a
stock is dropping. If you have a couple thousand shares short
and you're in it for twenty-five to $0.35 and you notice it going
back up, then you just buy to cover. It usually goes back up
in steps

If you're going to short something for several weeks or a month,
your best bet is to buy some out of money calls. That way if the
stock gaps up above your short you can always call shares back
and limit your loss.

The simplest way is just to buy puts. You could get sophisticated
with a bear call or a bear put spread. A bear call spread is a credit
spread you get paid for it. A bear put spread is a debit spread and
it cost you to put it on.

I used to do pterodactyl spreads oh my triple Wing spreads. I
invented different spreads. I was so sophisticated. These days
I just keep it simple.

I just looked at the SPX, I have no guess. :-)
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by daxwc »

Max Keiser: According to him, Tesla’s “underlying fundamental value is one-tenth of what the price is at the market at most. But as a meme it has value, but the global economy is based on memes.�
“Wall Street is going to feed whatever. There is a saying on Wall Street ‘You feed the ducks when they are quacking.’ The millennials are quacking, so you got to feed them,� he added.
What goes around, comes around.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

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What goes around, comes around.
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re: The Buffett Indicator

Post by WaltzCee »

Tiny medical company Lucid Inc. skyrockets 241% after a similarly named electric-vehicle startup makes a big announcement
That's funny. One trading day, I got into the little woman's peppermint schnapps. A typo got
me into a very thinly traded security. I spent about a week trying to sell that stuff back at
cost before I realize I was going to have to bite the bullet and take a small loss.

That cured me of that multi-tasking problem.
Max Keiser: According to him, Tesla’s “underlying fundamental value is one-tenth of
what the price is at the market at most. But as a meme it has value, but the global economy
is based on memes.�
“Wall Street is going to feed whatever. There is a saying on Wall Street ‘You feed the ducks
when they are quacking.’ The millennials are quacking, so you got to feed them,� he added.
You probably know Tesla just split. All technical indicators are a function of price and
volume. When a company dilutes its value by splitting, that changes a lot of the metrics.
One interesting one is the price to earnings ratio. That recent split took Tesla's PE from
north of 800 down to 40. It makes it a more attractive buy. Maybe still it's overvalued.

Some info on Tesla.
  • Short Interest (Shares Short)
    54,890,000
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior
    12,310,000

    Float
    742.85M

    % Held by Insiders
    20.51%

    % Held by Institutions
    57.93%
Image

Tesla it's not a normal stock. Could be that Millennial Factor. Having said that, my
speculation is in this chart. Shares shorted have increased, money flow and relative
strength are about in the middle, and the macd is trending down. Price-to-earnings is at
least twice what it should be. Common sense indicates this downtrend should continue at
least until the first week of October.

However Tesla has an uncanny way of defying common sense. If I had serious Capital
under management, I would hedge Tesla. My analysis of it is it is going to move. I have
no idea which way.

Anybody want to offer some speculation?
Attachments
TSLA.jpg
........................¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by eccentrically1 »

It might form that right shoulder first rather than the path on your chart.
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