Donald Trump 2016?

[agor95]

Chernobyl lost power this morning. Only enough fuel for generators for 48 hours to power critical safety systems. Same 210 staff has been there 2 weeks. Something is going to give very soon,

Atomic power gets bad press. What is wrong with putting uranium metal in pellet form into a reactor?
We all know metal when red hot burns. So flowing air over it is fine. What can go wrong?

Ho so we use uranium the has been burned (uranium oxide) and we put them in solid tubes.
Great what happens when they melt? So that possibility will never happen.
How much are we paying these clowns?

There you are with a big pool of critical mass.

Let's stick graphite rods between the tubes. After all graphite does not burn does it?

Are these the same clowns who filled a cabin with 100% oxygen?
How did that go?

Those dodge subs let's use water to cool the reactor. How use these on land next to water; Drinking water.
Time to bang both your heads together. You should have two you mutant clowns.

So bangs go another reactor. Have we not learned? The industry never learns it just repeats.

Can atomic power exist that does not go bang, create a big critical mass pool or pollute the air and water?

Yes but while we employ an industry of clowns it will not happen.

Bon voyage

[Fletcher]

There is a lot of brinkmanship (standard strategy), on all sides. The West is worried that Putin will use tactical nukes if they enforce a no-fly zone, or supply MIG's from Poland to Ukraine etc. Putin doesn't want a prolonged war.

There appears only two ways to for this to go any differently other than slow death by a thousand cuts.

As we have been talking about ..

1. The rise of the "Information Ecosystem", and dissent and collapse from within i.e. informed people power, sidestepping political spin.

2. Back to the good ol'days .. how was the "Cold War" won ?

Ans .. Extreme brinkmanship .. Reagan and Thatcher increased their defense budgets. They could afford more stockpiled weapons. The Soviet Union could not match the escalation nor afford the economic cost to maintain parity. The cold war was eventually won.

The Ruble has been crashed, international bonds repayments are due, financial leverage is applied, and so is social pressure (non traditional (and often controlled) information sources), from as many quarters as possible.

The question is .. is Putin and his cronies immune from this, for how long ? The weak link would appear to be when his own people learn of, and see no real benefit from, or indeed high personal cost of, Putin's expansionism policy crushing Ukraine at any cost.

"At any cost" is sometimes abridge too far for most sane people.

[rasselasss]

In my opinion this war is all about unbending egos and could have been settled using diplomacy ..when Putin started to build up military on the border of Ukraine the Pres. of Ukraine knew what Putin wanted...he continued with the rhetoric Ukraine that he could repel the Russian forces...his ego was bigger than reality ...he then asked for weapons for his people to fight Russian forces ...now he wants warplanes/no fly zones and the west to assist Ukraine...Putin has an ego and cant be seen to back down ...most of us know all this ...its a shame whats happening over there to civilians/refugees...the reality of Ukraine we all know is the Nuclear reaction if the west intervene ..even NATO is trying to placate their egos by stating even if Ukraine joins NATO they will not put nato military or weapons of any sort into Ukraine ...EGOS have caused this and the problem to return to as was will only increase the longer it continues...when battle lines are drawn its difficult to erase them as more dead and injured continue...God Help those who have lost homes family and friends in Ukraine because of egos...just my opinion.

[ovyyus]

IMO, whether China aligns with Russia or the West will determine the outcome for everyone. Has China already decided?

[agor95]

IMO, whether China aligns with Russia or the West will determine the outcome for everyone. Has China already decided?

China will buy up Russian company shares and improve trading relations along the way. At the same time continue the 'no interference' in the internal affairs in another state. Therefore they will abstain in any votes.
That way they can act to Putin as if Ukraine is a part of greater Russia then act on the above principle in the United Nations with regards Ukraine status as a country. It is ironic that the world has become addicts to cheap oil, gas and manufactured goods.

I expect the land of Ukraine will be cleared to allow the tribe of Rus to move into the land. A repeat of the mongol tartars or the tribe of han clearance of Tibet and then the Uyghurs.

Note. There appears work is being done to create 'The great wall of Russia'.
Also a Russian/Chinese intranet with restrictions to the Global Internet.

[Fletcher]

Right now it is a war for the minds of the people (on both sides).

It is no mistake that Putin is attacking civilian targets and not honouring escape routes for civilians. This was a tried and true tactic when Russia took Chechnya, then Georgia, and Syria. He is demoralizing and psychologically breaking down the resistance.

At the same time, like China, he does not allow open access to the internet, and controls the narrative his people hear thru his government sponsored intranet.

More power to the likes of Elon Musk and Starlink which IINM can bypass the intranet of information spin and flow. Could be wrong there, but something similar would be required to break the information barrier to the masses. And change the current dynamics of waging war for territory and resources.

Conversely the world has imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia (over 5,000 so far and growing). As the West fights for the minds and hearts of the Russian people, to demoralize them in turn. So that perhaps many troops will surrender or mount a coup etc. IOW's have no heart to follow Putin's narrative and false flags, and he loses his influence.

Since China also controls the narrative and access freedoms within its borders it watches to see who wins this war of words and information dynamics. And whether the West can effectively bypass their spin doctoring, which up till now has served them well. IOW's a new paradigm may well be in the making, led by social media and the internet.

IMO !

[Oystein]

On Russian Television today, there was a debate where a Russian film-maker debated the following:

Despite what we (Russian people) believed, the Ukrainian military fight back hard, and the Russian soldiers are not well received among the Ukrainians as we believed.. We believed that it would only be the nazi-units that would fight and the rest of the army would surender to us. Let's get real. We must honor the Ukrainian people that in 30 years they have managed to create a solid nation. (He also points out that this is the status not in the East Ukraine, but the Middle and West).

Conclusion: Putin and his closest advisors (eight now fired) and the Russian people (fed through the news) actually believed that most of the Ukrainian people would like to return back to (Soviet) Russia. And they believed that most of the people was held "hostage" by some crazy "Nazi regime" and the army and people would welcome them as liberators from the Nazi regime....

This is one of the first times, some truth has been mentioned on Russian News about the (forbidden word) WAR.

I believe Putin to be paranoid from living a life fearing USA, in his KGB-job. I even believe Putin himself believe that his political opponents are supported by, and secretly works for USA, and that is why he get them poisoned or jailed..

I still believe it could change under a new regime..if people understand that he has become paranoid and grandiose disordered.

As one Ukrainian father said when he and his son prepared to defend their city. I have lived so long that I have tried to be under Soviet. Never again! I will not let my son experience that. I would rather fight until death.

PS! An earlier Russian official said today that the reason the Russian army "sucked" even if they have modernized their equipment for the last 20 years, was that the lower leaders stole the money and bought themselves huge Yachts and just reported back that the equipment was modernized. (Tanks etc.) lol.

Best
ØR

[thx4]

Excellent "Oystein", if this beautiful story is true, how to get out the head high for Putin... ?
A++

[Oystein]

Yes, his problem (one of many) now is that, Russia and dictators in general has a problem admitting their errors, or losing honor. (If this was decided democratically, a retreat would not be a personal loss of honor.).

The "West" has a democratic/collective mantra of "Moral", and the "East has the personal mantra of "Honor". The two don't really work well together.. global politics run be desire for personal revenge, payback and never loosing face is doomed to fail.. Global politics must be run as a successful marriage. Revenge and sanctions is never the solution. We simply have to reward good behavior, and swallow our pride when we let the other party "win" sometimes. Putin has expressed that he has newer won any argument in the "marriage" with the West and USA, so ultimately he wants divorce, as a "crying woman" he is..

Because of personal honor, sanctions even make Putin less tempted to settle for less..

So I believe there are two ways out of the mess, while still remaining his head at least above his shoulders:

1. East Ukraine and Krim become own republics with ties to Russia's economy and defense. If the war turns out bad for Russia for an extended period, maybe Ukraine set at least a time limit to the next time they discuss or vote for NATO membership. Putin wants them at least (if not in alliance with Russia) to be neutral by constitution. To stop, Putin has to get something, so it seems like he "won".

2. Russia/Putin never stop, and are permanently sanctioned and permanently running Ukraine by military force.. until sometime it all collapses.. Then Putin has not in his own view lost face while in charge.. Ultimately Russia will be "sold" piece by piece to China.. if not Putin is taken down by his own regime and a riot and a new democratic opponent is chosen before China own most of Russia.. Then in 3-5 years paying national debt and making an agreement to help rebuild Ukraine would be possible. Russia could prosper under a friendly democratic economic open government.

[Fletcher]

Insightful commentary Oystein ..

Russia and Putin have the overwhelming numbers in troops and hardware to put a pincer movement on East Ukraine, and take it by force, and will attempt to.

The Ukraines have put up a stronger defence than many imagined and have not rolled over. Even if Russia takes the east and south territory the Ukraines will mount an everlasting gorilla warfare which they must eventually win (see history of other occupied countries). In the meantime sanctions and corporate's pulling out of Russia sink its economy and ability to finance a long lasting war. A different type of pincer movement !

Putin wants to install a puppet government that will ensure that Ukraine remains neutral. Like the Swiss are. He does not want it to potentially become a NATO country, and part of a NATO alliance. It would be right on his borders and apparently that is unacceptable from a strategic defence lens.

Right now Poland is his bad apple. Helping the supply lines and aid etc to the Ukraines. And IINM Poland is a NATO country. If he moves to limit Poland's influence with traditional warfare then that potentially green-lights NATO. Diplomacy would usually be tried first.

Expect more false flags from the Russians including perhaps use of chemical weapons. There was a news item on the tv a few days ago where a Russian diplomat said that there were 30 USA sponsored chemical warfare plants in the Ukraine. I doubt that is true and to me smacks of setting up a false flag event. Perhaps there is however I can't really see why there would be.

Keep piling on the social media pressure and tank the Russian economy, and Putin, and inform the people, imo.

[MrTim]

I don't discount the chemical/biological weapon labs in Ukraine. Look at what came out of Wuhan China and the subsequent attempts at coverup and flatout lies from some in the US gov't (2+ years of that makes me skeptical of any claims of denial of labs in the Ukraine.) Plus, there dozens more of these 'secret' labs around the world, researching who-knows-what deadly stuff. We aren't being told everything...

[agor95]

So many battles were lost by concentrating your smaller forces to protect them.

How many Ukrainians live in Cities & Towns compared to rural area?

This allows Putin's troops too encircle the urban areas and leave the rest to take over the less populated rural areas.

However if the Ukrainians moved to guerrilla warfare.
More mobile logistic smashing operation.

The number of troops required to subjugate the country would be far greater and more costly.

Note. Not allowing non-combatants a safe route out of a conflict area is a war crime. Sumy is the only encircle city where the people were allowed out.
The general for the city was killed. It looks like this war crime is being implementing by the generals for each city from orders [battle plans] they are following. There was a mention that Putin's troops know only to well killing non-combatants is a war crime. Remote killing by missiles or starvation is not a get out of jail [uk: gaol] card.

P.S. It's tragic Ukraine wants to demilitarized and so does Putin.
Well Ukraine is blowing up their weapons to put them out of action.
Within the Putin's Tanks which demilitarizes Ukraine even more.

[Oystein]

Reports of peace agreement in sight (Ref. Zelensky).

Ukraine says that Russia is confused and shocked that the people are resisting! And that they are still upheld outside of Kiev. Zelensky go on and say that the Russian troops where told this would this would be a "walk in the park", a liberation march to free Kiev. Many soldiers are running away and turning over to Ukrainian military. They also take over Russian hardware. Zelensky say that Russia understands that they have nothing more to gain..

Zelensky make a point that the Russians have been feed with the same propaganda lies for so long that they believed their own propaganda. That Nazis, supported by USA hold Ukrainian people hostage.

Another Russian said that the last 5 years Russian Putin-controlled media has been sending shows of war 24/7, Where every country in the world, especially NATO and EU wants to destroy Russia. There are also a huge Russian Youtuber that blasts this same narrative.. And the media/Putin call them Nazis and cant forget the WW2 and Putin controlled media paint rosy pictures of Stalin and Lenin. I think the root of all this paranoia is Putins and some close generals Paranoia stemming from their KGB time. The fact is that nobody would like a piece of Russia.. paranoia and false propaganda.

Lastly it will be "exciting" to see what Ukraine must foresake and which of Russia's demands that will not be met.

Zelensky has in reality said that it is only NATO membership that they can bargain.. Russia wants a new Russian-friendly government, Krim and Donbas, full demilitarization and to be neutral by constitution (No NATO).

Best
ØR

[agor95]

Has Putin served the people well?

Has the checks and balances within Russia protected the people from
miss use of the office he serves?

P.S. Change the name and state of your choice.

[agor95]

If we want to have food in next years harvest then we need to grow it instead of biomass for ethanol. So feed people not combustion engines.

Saying that the demand for fuel is hitting the maximum pump rate for oil.
So the choice to feed people or vehicles is being made.

We have had the rush for gas now it's the rush for nuclear.
Just remember the 'walk away' test.

Does the design allow people to walk away and the reactor cool to a stop.
Or does the design need active intervention to cool to a stop.

Again it comes to a choice keep the people from being harmed or not.

P.S. PFAs also known as C8 has been fixed we have C6 now; sorted.