The Perfect Storm / BUSH

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ken_behrendt
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by ken_behrendt »

terry5732 wrote:
If the federal government went back to it's constitutional roles (defense and post office only) then import duties could pay for it's running as they did for the first 100+ years.

Actually, I'm for removing all import duties. BUT, like I said earlier, if a foreign company wants to sell their manufactured products here, then they had better be manufacturing them here using American workers! If a foreign company wants to sell us their countriy's raw materials, then fine. But, then their markets must be "open" to buying our manufactured goods using that raw material without any duties imposed on it.

In short, the people in Washington, D.C. to whom we pay some of the highest salaries in the world to run our economy for us have got to start worrying about the bottom line. That is, they have got to start getting defensive and using policies that will turn our staggering trade deficit into a trade surplus! Instead of using manufacturing jobs, we should be gaining manufacturing jobs. Our economy, like a wounded animal, can only hemorrhage so long before it keels over dead!


Hey...has anybody noticed what is happening to the spot market price of gold? Well, it's now shot past $500 USD per troy ounce and looks like it will keep going strong for a while. Much of this sudden spurt in gold prices has to do with the ongoing collapse of the economies of the West. If it finally hits $1000 USD per troy ounce, expect to see much more debate about the USA's economic woes on the mainstream news media...


ken
On 7/6/06, I found, in any overbalanced gravity wheel with rotation rate, ω, axle to CG distance d, and CG dip angle φ, the average vertical velocity of its drive weights is downward and given by:

Vaver = -2(√2)πdωcosφ
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by rlortie »

Ken,

The price of gold is always in ratio with the Prime Interest Rate set by the Feds. If the price of gold ever hits $1000.00 per Troy ounce, You will live to see the prime interest rate at 20+%.

I remaind you of The Carter Mondale era Where this happened. Thousands of home building contractors and suppliers went broke as no one could qualify for a home mortgage loan. Gold shot to over $800.00 per ounce.

Ralph
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by terry5732 »

I sold my gold for $800 an ounce in 1980. Gas was about $1.00 per gallon, minimum wage was $3.35 and my rent was $250 a month. That $800 invested at that time conservatively is now $2500. If the world economy was fixed to gold it could never grow unless you pulled in a gold laden asteroid from space.
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

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Terry,

For 1980 your figures are right with what I remember. Your rent had not inflated, landlords as myself knew that if we raised the rent we would not get tenants.

It is a time I rather not remember as by the time Carter was out of office and things started turning around I had lost over $237,000.00 in residential and commercial propertys.

Four of the excavating contractors that worked with me as a spec. Builder literally loaded up their backhoes and dump trucks and headed into the hills to dig for gold. Other went to Casper Wyoming which was considered the only boom construction area left.

I also went gold mining and staked claims on a total of 80 acres. Moved in a camp trailer and set up a seperation box using a Hungarian style sluice box. I piped in gravity fed water as well as using two gasoline driven pumps.

Do you remember what the prime interest rate was at that time. With minimum wage at $3.25 per hour could you have qualified to purchase a $78,000 home on a fixed contract? Few people could even qualify for a new car loan.

I owned a 10 unit Condominium that I had just built. It was brand new and had never been lived in. I only sold one unit and was forced to rent the rest. The rental income did not meet the Construction loan which was a one year balloon and would have to be refinanced. I ended up Giving it away in order to save my credit reputation and took a bath of $46,000.00 out of my own pocket. I also lost three of nine two story two bedroom Fourplexes and other properties.

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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by barksalot »

Ken

No import duties= no incentive to manufacture here.
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by jim_mich »

Ken,

I'm very much aware that Gold broke through $500 last evening. Yesterday I made about $2800 daytrading gold and silver mining stocks. Gold will be over $1000 in about 5 years or sooner. Gold has been gaining about 15 percent a year since the end of 2001. Do the math! If you put your money into a bank, what interest will you get? Then subtract real inflation (its not what the government says) and you're most likely loosing money.

I prefer silver coins over gold. There is a shortage developing with silver. Right now the gold/silver price ratio is about 60:1 and I expect it to drop to below 16:1 which is the ratio of gold to silver on this planet. Silver is being consumed by industry faster than it is being mined.



Ralph,

You very are wrong about gold always being in ratio with the Prime Interest Rate! Look at the interest rates for the last four years. Have they been anywhere near the 15 percent per year that gold has increased?

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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by rlortie »

Jim,

I agree that the ratio in the last few years does not make my point. I am referring to historical charts and tracking preceding the black twenties stock crash.

We seem to get hit with double digit inflation and interest on the average of 15 to 20 year cycles. Gold standard goes sky high when interest rates precede it. In the meantime we have what I call a gold price based on overall inflation rates, and that is what I see for the last four years. 15% per year probably does not keep up with the inflation price of a new automobile. When the price of gold was froze at $32.00 per ounce I could buy a new Ford deluxe for less than $875.00. Today that car is well over $31,000 or better.

What I state above is from personal experience and knowledge gained by research in the early 1980's. Happenings since then have not changed my overall outlook. Interest rates have raised, what? three times in as many months. I have a variable rate mortgage loan, I am now paying in interest what four months ago was meeting principle and interest.

Yes I do expect to see Gold prices keep climbing, when it gets back up to $800.00 ( I anticipate it will) I will consider reopening my placer claims. It would take at least $800.00 per ounce to make it cost effective.

Ralph
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by jim_mich »

Ralph, you are wrong again!

http://minneapolisfed.org/Research/data ... st1800.cfm
Douple digit inflation is NOT a 15 to 20 year cycle. We had double digit inflation in the following years...

1981, 1980, 1979, 1974, 1947, 1942, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1864, 1863, 1862, 1813

Most (maybe all?) of these from 1947 and before happened during times of war.

Historical interest rates are hard to find and they vary greatly according to type of loan. Most bank loans never reached double digit rates until 1979 except during war time.

If you only look at ancient historical data and don't look at an investment to see what it is currently doing and especially why, then I feel sorry for you. I also feel sorry for all those suckers with variable rate mortgages.

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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by rlortie »

JIm,

I can not argue with your above post, and maybe I should have said high inflation rather than double digit.

I admit that I do not keep up with the financial world anymore. My portfolio was wiped out by mid 1981 with the exception of my IRA . Now retired, I live on fixed incomes from SS, a government FURS and a lucrative IRA. The three supply me with a net income exceeding my salary before retirement.

As with a lot of people my age, medical expenses wipe out any hopes of much investment sources.

THank you for your concise input and I now withdraw from this conversation.

Ralph
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by terry5732 »

Jim is SO sure gold is going through the roof that his coming patent must use the fabled gold Offrerian bearings!
Anyone who has held gold in the last 20 years has taken a bath. If it goes to $1000 in 5 years or even NOW , it is still not to the level it was at in the early 80s or even 1990. Like trying to fly a lead airplane.
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by AgingYoung »

No one that trades is sure of anything with some possible exceptions. For instance when Gates told the world he was short the dollar he actually was in the process and selling msft hand over fist to raise cash to be able to short the dollar. When you move in a market like Gates or Buffet or Soros etc. you can be pretty sure you're right. You make the market.

Jim has a reasonable expectation. I don't think that holding precious metals is reckless speculation considering what's happening in the world today and how viable a hedge they've historically been during rough economic times. I think a better investment would be a garden or a shot gun or both. I don't have the garden but I have a little silver and a shot gun.

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Terry,

I read over your post and noticed this:
Anyone who has held gold in the last 20 years has taken a bath.
What gold has done over the last 20 years isn't indicative of what it might do in the near future. All types of asset classes do well then correct. If you catch the wave going the wrong way you naturally are going to take a bath.
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by ken_behrendt »

Gentlemen...

I am not advocating anybody buy gold bullion coins for speculative purposes. Although the spot market price on gold is now surging past the $500 USD level per troy ounce, that does not mean that it will not drop back down again in the near future if it gets "oversold". I'm suggesting that, regardless of what happens to the price in the near term, one should maintain a small supply as an ultimate hedge against financial doomsday should it ever arrive due to the bungled mishandling of the world economy by the powers that be. It is only in that situation that one would think about its use and then mainly for food, medicine, or weaponry...


ken
On 7/6/06, I found, in any overbalanced gravity wheel with rotation rate, ω, axle to CG distance d, and CG dip angle φ, the average vertical velocity of its drive weights is downward and given by:

Vaver = -2(√2)πdωcosφ
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by SeaWasp »

Check this site out! Has heaps of downloadable videos.. For a laugh or for a ponder!
http://index.plan9.de/servers/propaganda.plan9.de/eng/
Enjoy!
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by Trev »

Wow! Wish I could afford broadband.
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re: The Perfect Storm / BUSH

Post by racer270 »

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