Well??
View the websites in order, but it was not till the youtube explanation that I fully understood why. Also I like the version in the second were Monty doesn't know.
http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/Montytitle.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
http://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/21/us/be ... wanted=all
tks
Monty Hall Problem
Moderator: scott
re: Monty Hall Problem
fascinating - I would have been one of the one's who said self-righteously 50:50, until I read those explanations - in other words as more information comes to hand the odds change.
kind of reminds me about the observer affecting the outcome of an experiment.
the sort of problem Bessler presents - a counter-intuitive solution no doubt, just like the monty hall paradox nailed a large number of mathematicians & logical thinking cognisant people.
P.S. in other words your first choice confers a 33% chance of success - after Hall shows one of the two left as the goat, instead of 50:50 as I would have thought, the probability remains 33% on your first choice but rises to 66% if you subsequently switch - I think I'll try it out with 3 cards & see if in fact the counter-intuitive result pans out, or not ? - then I will be completely convinced if a large enough trial sample is used - should be interesting at least.
I once met an charismatic Indonesian man [through the work I was involved in - he was a consultant] who was a gambler - one night at a function [the speaches were boring] he told me he was the luckiest man he knew & that he often won because he could influence the outcome with his mind - I played along & said so could I - we suggested a test [the looser buys the next round of drinks - he wasn't muslim] - I told him I could hold any coin he chose for a few minutes then I could choose heads or tails & I'd win more than 75% of the time - we did this, he flipping the coin each time & letting it fall on the table - well, to make a short story long - 21 flips in a row I won every consecutive toss [100%] - even I was amazed ? - he decided to stop the test then, doubting his luck - didn't know I had that kind of power :7)
kind of reminds me about the observer affecting the outcome of an experiment.
the sort of problem Bessler presents - a counter-intuitive solution no doubt, just like the monty hall paradox nailed a large number of mathematicians & logical thinking cognisant people.
P.S. in other words your first choice confers a 33% chance of success - after Hall shows one of the two left as the goat, instead of 50:50 as I would have thought, the probability remains 33% on your first choice but rises to 66% if you subsequently switch - I think I'll try it out with 3 cards & see if in fact the counter-intuitive result pans out, or not ? - then I will be completely convinced if a large enough trial sample is used - should be interesting at least.
I once met an charismatic Indonesian man [through the work I was involved in - he was a consultant] who was a gambler - one night at a function [the speaches were boring] he told me he was the luckiest man he knew & that he often won because he could influence the outcome with his mind - I played along & said so could I - we suggested a test [the looser buys the next round of drinks - he wasn't muslim] - I told him I could hold any coin he chose for a few minutes then I could choose heads or tails & I'd win more than 75% of the time - we did this, he flipping the coin each time & letting it fall on the table - well, to make a short story long - 21 flips in a row I won every consecutive toss [100%] - even I was amazed ? - he decided to stop the test then, doubting his luck - didn't know I had that kind of power :7)