U.K. Referendum

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U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

If you have any questions?
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by ME »

51.9% for a Brexit.
Seems too close to call.
The aftereffects are still uncertain.
If I had a vote in this: I'd vote for a revote.
As far as I'm concerned: This nice friend is still considered a nice neighbor.
You will be missed.
Marchello E.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

My broker said US markets might decline a bit, then bounce back as if nothing happened.

Certainly watching. DOW dropped pretty good. If it crosses the 200 day, I'd expect it to go even further (16400).

Damn Britts.
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Post by jim_mich »

What little stocks I have left, they are up 7.3% today.

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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

@Jim

There are going to be currency and stock volatility.

However the fundamentals have not changed from the day before
to the day after.

So they will quiet down to a steady level.

Democracy is worth taking some uncertainty.

However power politics may want that not to happen.

Keep the people managed
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

@ME

We kept up all night as it was close - neck & neck.

The town and country areas.
How many voted and what the results were.

There was a lot of tired people on Friday.

This is a Political Democratic control vote.

No matter what Political persons say or do;
We are part of European history fealty rules.

I explain that Britons are Europe -

We speak a language built from
Indo-European, Celtic, Latin, Germanic and Scandinavian.

Really bad ascent

We are a nation of shop keepers so we will not stop trading.

However, High Political Power will not want others to have
a Referendum.

If they do then they will create a re-vote until the right result is achieved.

We want Europe a chance to have Democracy not just big Business
control and managed stability.

Life is an adventure is it not?
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Post by ME »

Yes, life should be an adventure.

Unfortunately most of these things is about control - and thus fear.
I suspect that counts for both the extreme-pro and extreme-contra.
Where the "pro's" want more control because of the chance of loosing it, and the "contra's" are just rebellious (supposedly out of a form of self-control) but are actually "managed" because they feel they otherwise don't have any say.
So I slightly favor the "pro's" as they have at least the ability to correct things while the "contra's" remain.. eehm contra.
But I'm actually favoring the minority being caught in the middle, basically they don't know what to choose and balance at the outer-edge instead of residing on whichever side of basically the same coin: It's hard for them to yell "nuance!!", "yes, but !" or "no, but!".

I think that's where the adventure lies: the uncertainty of actual and truly unmanaged choice - and being aware of it.
Marchello E.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

@ME

That is a good reply, I can appreciate.
The referendum is remain or leave to the political union.

That is yes or no and really the instruction to the British Politic is
more complex than that simplistic choice.

The Leave result has given all of us a shock.

I believe a stock now for EU Democracy improvements will
help us all.

There are several counties in Europe who need to be
given an opportunity to voice their simplistic position.

This leave result alerts the EU Politic to slow down and review were it is going.
However the given solution, so far, is to accelerated the process.

I have seen the effects of the Euro currency introduction on my European
friends in Spain, France, Netherlands, Italy & Germany.

Also we have seen the change in France, Belgium & Italy last year.

The offer supplied to the UK Prime Minister did not pass the electorates red-lines.

I'm actually favoring the minority being caught in the middle
That is the majority, caught in the middle, we would have voted a fraction Leave and a fraction to Remain.

Repeating a referendum does undermine the Democratic process.
There needs to be structural reform in the EU Democratic process
for that to be justified.

There are a lot of things to do next week.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by ME »

There needs to be structural reform in the EU Democratic process
Agreed.
The current democratic system is like an enormous amount of thermostats only able to send an on/off signal to a controller once a day, where all activated controllers send an on/off signal to the heating system once a week, and then cross fingers for a properly regulated temperature while those controllers also control other things. This, while a binary choice is basically no choice at all, even when it's averaged; and especially when there's a lack of a feedback-mechanism.
It ain't perfect yet,
Marchello E.
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Re: re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

agor95 wrote:@Jim

There are going to be currency and stock volatility.

However the fundamentals have not changed from the day before
to the day after.

bollocks.
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Re: re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

agor95 wrote:@Jim

There are going to be currency and stock volatility.

However the fundamentals have not changed from the day before
to the day after.
Currency exchange rates are key to multinationals operating in GB and the pound, well got pounded. These rates change the fundamental most value investors look at, that is profit.

I've read interest rates in GB could edge up & that seems likely. This will put pressure on small businesses and consumers.

Brexit has caused angst for some and I suspect elation for others. GB is America's ally and now GB has a weakened position in the EU. They're no longer at the table. There are some in the world who always enjoy when The Great Satan gets kicked in the shins.

On the bright side, consumers in GB won't have bureaucrats who aren't accountable to them determining the shape of their bananas (bendy banana) among other things. They won't have to accept anyone from the EU as a citizen (peaceful Syrians). etc.

It's not smart to bet against US equity markets (W Buffet) but in the short term this metric managed to sink below its 200 day.

Image

The weekly chart looks like this (heading toward that 200 day):

Image

I'm reiterating my guess of DOW 16,400. I know I said 20K but that was before the Britts got their bloody panties in a wad!!!

Things happen. You just got to keep your ear to the ground and try to not get your head run over by passing Conestogas.
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DOWwkly.jpg
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by ME »

That chart just looks like a random signal. What happened in February?
Marchello E.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

I have no idea, Marchello, other than the flippant people made some serious jack. At the first of the year I was talking to Trevor Lyn Whatford about it:

Image

My thoughts at the time:
You can see the channel of lower lows and lower highs that precipitated the profit taking/correction of Aug 24 of last year. It's happening again.
were technical.

I'm not very good interpreting news. I know how to improve but I'm too lazy.

That chart just looks like a random signal.
Well, I never! Can't you see? Clearly it's a radio transmission from aliens on the 7th planet from the sun needing to have the r-f shunted to ground right after it gets rectified, then superheterodyned!

or not.
Cheers
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Post by ME »

Clearly it's a radio transmission from aliens on the 7th planet from the sun needing to have the r-f shunted to ground right after it gets rectified, then superheterodyned!
Wow!
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

Come on. I said or not.

If you look at the chart coming into Brexit you can see it was sagging a bit similarly to the last 2 times (Aug 2015 & Feb 2016) I didn't bet yet it was a safe one to bet on a little correction.
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