U.K. Referendum

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ME
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by ME »

Come on. I said or not.

If you look at the chart coming into Brexit you can see it was sagging a bit similarly to the last 2 times (Aug 2015 & Feb 2016) I didn't bet yet it was a safe one to bet on a little correction.
oh yes you did... it just reminded me of this "Wow!".

I just have no idea (=zero-knowledge) what I'm looking at, yeah well I see "Industrial Average".
If it's connected to all-about-Europe, I would guess - and just picked something:
In August 2015 - a EU-vote about relocation of immigrants;
In February 2016 - violation of the (open border) Schengen-agreement as some countries decided to closed up;
June 2016 - Brexit;

Or it's not related, but only slightly influenced/co-influenced/influencing, or completely coincidental, or totally random, or a combination...
Just curious in general: how do you know? (besides gut-feeling and years of practice)
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

The cause most often given for market volitility is uncertainty. Any news event could be blamed. It's a game.

But when some events are coming up people plan for that uncertainty and that planning shows up in the charts. I look at the relative strength and MACD's. I also developed a technical indicator that's highly predictive of volatility.

You could go to http://stockcharts.com and learn quite a bit. I like their charts. If you get a subscription you can do more with them.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by Fletcher »

IMO basically if you understand human nature to some degree you have a better handle on markets movements and such. "flight or fight" and "nature v's nurture".

In fact it goes a long way towards understanding Politics, Psychology, Economics, Philosophy, Anthropology, Sociology, Sociobiology, Theology, Risk and Ethics and Humanities.

It underpins how mass psychosis occurs (the lemming response) and what form it manifests in times of stress or change.

People who understand that corrections are like a pendulum oscillations (without much of a dampener initially) make money by selling short or long etc by predicting the likely over-correction response (from lack of information and inherent flight response). They don't necessarily have to have all the information not privy to others but just accept the probability that an over-correction will occur usually. And that there is inbuilt opportunity to take advantage of human nature in action.

If we all reacted the same to perceived threats then the market would be very rational and not emotional, and that opportunity would be far less.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by ME »

Trade-market sounds to be more like chronic mass-hysteria :-)
The weird part: It's seems a game for some, real life for others...
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

@ME
chronic mass-hysteria


Raw brutal greedy gabbling is the multiplier of volatility.

How many bets went south by Britain using their democratic right?

Any Democrats from America wish to visit - we have cheap holidays?
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

Raw brutal greedy gabbling is the multiplier of volatility.
wow, and holy cow. You're saying greed is directly proportional to volatility?

Interesting theory, if you ask me.

Care to elaborate?
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

I think you are milking my prose, from greedy gambling, to another premise.

However we will not get Moody.

I think your use of the 'Socratic method' is a worthy post for this political topic.

I also found the 'Rhetorical method' during the time up to the vote; a little weak.
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Post by jim_mich »

What little stocks I have left, they are up 32% this week, and up 83% this month.

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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

What little stocks I have left, they are up 32% this week, and up 83% this month.
Earlier when you mentioned that, Jim, I thought you were in the ETF GLD, yet it fell short of those returns. So I don't have a clue.

Now I'm very curious what you bought.

I'm long the mark of the beast, but it's not even coming close to what you're in.

Care to share?
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Post by jim_mich »

USLV is an ETF fund that is designed to move three times the price of silver.

Alternately one could trade silver futures.

PS,
<sarcasm> Don't follow me, since according to certain trolls I'm an idiot uneducated liar. </sarcasm>

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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

Tricky - small time traders are good - a mega big time traders BANKS etc. are bad.

@WaltzCee over to you 'Socratic method' awaits.
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by agor95 »

It's is quiet in England less or no queues at the shops I have visited?

Members of Parliament are being nice with their work mates; as they dump on them as not worthy?

The Constitution is made up as we go along. So did the vote instruct or advices these elected representatives?

Can Members of Parliament represent the will of the people, even when they do not agree with the people?
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re: U.K. Referendum

Post by WaltzCee »

@WaltzCee over to you 'Socratic method' awaits.
I have no earthly idea what you're talking about. Would you kindly dumb it down for me.

I'm just your average Joe.
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Post by WaltzCee »

jim_mich wrote:USLV is an ETF fund that is designed to move three times the price of silver.
Commodities scare me. I don't mind saying.
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Post by jim_mich »

Regular stocks scare me. They sometimes go to near zero value.

An exchange traded fund (ETF) based upon the price of some commodity (silver, gold, oil, real estate) seldom go below the value of the underlying asset.

USLV is like buying $3000 worth of silver for $1000. If silver goes up 22% (1% each day for 20 days) then you make about $800 on your $1000 investment (3% compounded daily). If silver goes down 22% (-1% each day for 20 days) then you loose about $544 of your $1000 investment (3% loss compounded daily).

The up side potential is much greater than the down side risk.

Of course there are fund fees and possible slippage involved, but they are minimal. The USLV fund basically invests in a combination of Forex silver market and money market funds in a ratio designed to track the price of silver on a three to one ratio.

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